Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final is on tap for this evening, with the Rangers hosting the Lightning up 1-0 in the series.
We have a bet on the winner of this one, along with a few prop spots that offer value. Let's get right to it.
You are very likely aware of this trend by now, but if you're not, I will bring it to your attention here. Bolts goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (and this Tampa team) are 18-0 following a postseason loss in the past three seasons.
That is a remarkable ability to bounce back, and while at some point that streak will end, it's one I want to follow tonight.
We felt like New York was in the better spot in Game 1 thanks to so recently playing, while the Lightning were coming off nine days rest. The rust indeed reigned supreme, as Tampa Bay lost 6-2. With that game under their belts, I expect a far more competitive Game 2 with more Tampa goals and tighter defense.
The biggest takeaway I have from Game 1 is how much action Tampa Bay's top line of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli generated.
Combined, the three of them finished with 17 shots on goal and both of the team's goals. In a game I expect the Lightning to win, we target this line for continued goal-scoring, and it's Cirelli that offers the best value as the top-line center.
Cirelli had two points in Game 1 and now has a point in two straight games. His involvement has really increased, as he also has four SOG in two straight.
+120 for a member of a top-line is value I will follow every chance I get.
The Rangers have allowed 39.14 shots per game at home this postseason (which excludes their triple OT game against Pittsburgh in Round 1). Tampa Bay stayed in-line with that number in Game 1 here, finishing with 39 shots on net.
As just highlighted, it was the Lightning's top-line that really pushed out the volume. Kucherov finished with seven shots on 12 attempts and Stamkos tallied six shots on eight attempts.
Kucherov is juiced at over 2.5 and Stamkos's success at his 3.5 number is a bit shaky. We pivot with two alternate-lines on FanDuel and load each of them up to finish with 3+ shots.
Tampa knows they need to push the pace in this one, and that's going to start with two of their top skaters.
While I know this line is a bit juiced, it's looking like the best option for me on the Rangers' end. I know that we went to Artemi Panarin in Game 1 at +130, which covered. While that was great, I'm a bit less enthused about him hitting again as he attempted only four shots.
We turn to Zibanejad, who has reclaimed his role as the top power-play shooter on New York, with 14 PP shots this postseason.
Tampa has been heavily penalized in these playoffs and for the last few months, and it's these opportunities that should present shot opportunities for Zibanejad.
Zibanejad finished Game 1 with seven shots on goal on nine attempts and has now gone over 2.5 shots in three of four games against the Lightning.
He's far more consistent at home as well, going over in six of eight games, and has yet to finish with fewer than two SOG in any playoff game, which offers us a solid floor.
Drinking the juice here on what feels like their most reliable shooter.
While I do think Tampa Bay and Vasilevskiy will limit scoring tonight, it's hard to not go right back to Adam Fox. Even if the Rangers tack on just two goals, it feels very likely he will be involved in one of them.
With his points prop juiced, the alternative is a pivot to an assist (with a hat-tip to potentially betting his power play-point as well).
Fox has an assist in six straight games, with eight total in that span. He has recorded an apple in 10 of 15 playoff games, and at home he has an assist in six of eight.
The Rangers star defensemen is so involved in their offensive game and their power play, and he deserves our continued trust.
Best of luck tonight, let's cash some bets and enjoy Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final.
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